Un-Predicting

We begin learning about cause and effect from the moment we enter this world. If I cry, someone will come to soothe me. If I drop this toy, it will no longer be in my hand. If I bang on this pot lid, it makes a loud noise. If I hurt someone, they will no longer want to be my friend. If I put in extra effort/hours at work, I will be eligible for that promotion. The specifics change as we grow, but the lesson is the same. Cause and effect. Actions and consequences.

We learn that many things in life are predictable. Dependable.

But we also come to learn that there are many instances in life when we cannot accurately or adequately predict what will happen.

Allow me a moment to demonstrate.

Every time I register to run a race, people ask me what my goal is. What my target pace is, if I hope to place, if I have a specific time I am aiming for. And I always answer the same way: I will run the race that the day gives me.

It’s not that I don’t have goals, it’s not that I don’t want to improve, get faster, aim higher… but in running, especially as a casual amateur runner, there are just too many unknowns to accurately predict my outcomes. What if I don’t sleep well the night before? What if something I ate the day before doesn’t sit well with me? What if my joints or muscles are worn out from my training and workouts leading up to the race? What if it’s hotter than I trained for? Or colder? Or brighter or rainier or more humid or any other of countless uncontrollable variables that can affect my run.

So while I may have hopes for the outcome, I try to avoid predicting how it will actually go. I try to run whatever race the day gives me, and I try to be okay with that.

While, as I have shared before, I am comforted by routines, which means that being able to at least partially predict outcomes is in my comfort zone, the act of running itself is routine enough that I don’t feel the need to proceed based on predictions.

And I have both learned and accepted that, at least for me, running is not a simple equation of cause and effect.

So why is it, then, that I still find myself attempting to apply the principle of cause and effect to predict other things in my life for which there are just as many, if not more, variables that are outside of my span of control?

Oh, you want to go to the movies next weekend? I have a busy week, I’m going to be super frustrated by then, I shouldn’t go. Oh, you want to go out for lunch tomorrow? I ate a big dinner tonight, I am not going to be hungry, go ahead without me. You want to go to an amusement park next month? I’m going to have the best time ever!

Good or bad, I find myself predicting not the events themselves… but my emotional state at that future time. I seem to think I can already know how I am going to feel on any given day. And, yes, history can help us to make educated guesses, but when we try to predict our emotions, what we are actually doing is limiting our potential and our experiences.

Sure, I know that I have been frustrated after a busy week, but what if time with friends is just what I need to break out of that headspace? Of course I want to have the best time ever at the amusement park, but what if I didn’t sleep well the night before, or I get a flat tire on the way there, or my favorite ride is closed?

I know these are just examples, but the truth is, we do this to ourselves all of the time, in situations larger and smaller than these.

The bigger truth, if you really think about it, is that, while history can absolutely provide us with feedback and guidance, human beings are not static creatures, and our emotions are far more complex than simple if-than scenarios. At every moment, we are growing, changing, evolving, and transforming. Every experience adds nuance, which can alter the effect of any given cause. My response today may be very different than my response was last week. And my emotions about the same situation next week, next month, or ten years from now is something I definitely shouldn’t assume that I can know at this moment in time.

So now I have a new goal - to meet my emotions with the same openness I bring to race day. To show up with curiosity. To prepare, but not predict. To stop limiting my life by trying to pre-feel it. From now on, I’ll let each moment unfold as it may and give myself the grace to run the race the day gives me.